Can 23 February 2025 go down in history as Europe’s Day of Sovereignty? It is indeed a possibility if Friedrich Merz, the victor of Germany’s election, has his say.
It is noteworthy that Merz, the typical German supporter of transatlantic relations and strict fiscal policies, a figure many thought was deeply rooted in the 1980s, chose to mark his triumph by challenging one of the core tenets of German conservative politics since Konrad Adenauer, the nation’s first leader after World War II. ‘My topmost priority will be to reinforce Europe swiftly so that, step by step, we can genuinely attain autonomy from the USA,’ he stated in his initial post-election conversation.
While some other leaders attempt to have it both ways: discussing the defense of Europe while collaborating with the United States. Merz, however, has initiated what amounts to a direct assault on Germany’s closest ally, even going to the extent of accusing the US of meddling in elections, comparable to Russia.
Since Donald Trump returned to power in the White House, US-Europe relations have been immersed in a fundamental paradox. On one side, Europeans are striving to convey to Trump their willingness to take more action in return for US security assurances. However, the US, the guardian they are seeking protection from, is pressuring a NATO partner to surrender its own land and compelling Ukraine to agree to its own economic exploitation and looting. Insisting that a desperate, war-stricken nation relinquish half of its proceeds from vital minerals and rare-earth metals indefinitely is a form of extortion that would shame even a crime boss.
It is perhaps for these reasons that Merz has delved into uncharted waters, emphasizing that Europe must transition from complete reliance on the US to some form of self-reliance.
At my think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations, we have initiated a European Security Initiative to investigate what this transition might entail. Prior to Trump’s electoral win, we deliberated on how to defend Europe with reduced American involvement. Nonetheless, Europeans are increasingly pondering ways to protect themselves from America.
Merz appears to comprehend that assuming the role of the leader Europe requires demands not only transforming Germany’s relations with France and Poland, but also renegotiating ties with Britain completely. Once British Prime Minister Keir Starmer returns from what is bound to be an exceedingly frustrating initial trip to Washington, he might adopt this perspective as well.
Yet, to stand any chance of success, Merz must also confront the self-inflicted harm caused by Germany’s ultra-conservative economic policies. Abolishing the constitutional debt limit, established by his forerunner and party comrade, Angela Merkel, is not only essential to enable Europe to rearm but also to fund urgently required investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, and digitalization.
Merz has been resolute in asserting that mainstream parties in Europe need to reevaluate their stance on immigration. However, he has been less clear on how to address this issue in a manner that takes into account Europe’s demographic difficulties. Ultimately, a series of policies is needed to regain command over borders and migratory flows, reduce the adverse effects of these flows on the most vulnerable segments of society, and simultaneously address the labor force needed for economic expansion, innovation, and public amenities.
Regarding green policies and the environment, the core challenge for Germany and Europe will be finding a method to avoid a trade-off between emission reduction and price reduction. The only solution is to devise an environmental strategy that concurrently serves as an industrial strategy.
However, the question remains—how? A fundamental query underlying all these topics, from immigration and the green transition to trade and defense, is how to diminish the risks of interdependence. How can the government instill assurance in those left behind that it will safeguard them in a hazardous world, without isolating ourselves?
The independence promised by Merz will necessitate Europe to reassess many of its relationships, including those with China, Israel, India, and naturally, the US. We will need a political leadership capable of seeing things clearly and implementing radical transformations. Merz won’t be undertaking this shift alone. It’s highly likely that he will need to spearhead a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), which might actually aid him in steering his party in a new direction—particularly concerning the debt limit. While Germany’s coalitions have often been perceived as government weaknesses, in this instance, a grand coalition of the primary center-right and center-left parties may prove to be a source of strength.
Merz is an improbable candidate for this transition. During his competition with Merkel for the leadership of the Christian Democratic Union, his central criticism was that she had veered perilously far from the party’s core beliefs. Yet, just as it took an SPD chancellor, the outgoing Olaf Scholz, to commence boosting defense spending and sever ties with Russia, Merz, the staunch supporter of transatlantic relations and fiscal conservatism, perhaps stands as the sole German politician capable of scrapping the debt brake and paving the way for a genuinely autonomous Europe.
About Author
