‘A wild future’: How economists are handling AI uncertainty in forecasts

As AI becomes a bigger part of the economy, will it change the way we measure growth? And as we go forward, will AI’s impact on GDP keep increasing? “It helps to make a distinction in terms of AI’s contribution. On one hand, we’re seeing a lot of stories about data centers being built, electricity demand rising, and power plants being dusted off or newly planned to support AI. When you build a data center or a power plant, you create real economic activity — the planning, the materials, the labor that goes into erecting these things. That shows up as capital contribution to growth because it’s physical investment.

“But beyond that, you also get productivity enhancements afterward. It’s similar to infrastructure buildout. If you build a new port or airport, you spend money up front, but then it becomes cheaper to ship goods or move workers, and that long-term efficiency shows up on the productivity side.

“AI will likely have similar spillover effects once the infrastructure is in place. How large those effects will be is unclear, which is the core challenge… estimating the relationship between AI and productivity.”

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AndyC

Andy Curtis is an award-winning security consultant, researcher and public speaker. He has been working in the computer security industry since the early 1990s, having been employed by state and federal government, leading healthcare and banking providers across three continents. He has given talks about computer security for some of the world’s largest companies, worked with law enforcement agencies on investigations into hacking groups, and is a regular voice on TV and radio explaining IT security threats.

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