Russian help would make North Korea’s missile-test flurry worse news
One of the biggest concerns is that Russia may have helped. North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile tests in the past few weeks. Advances in North Korean missile technology are unwelcome in themselves, but any Russian technical backing behind the effort would indicate a tightening of the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership – and greater potential for more North Korean advances.
There have been at least four sets of North Korean missile launches in the past few weeks. On 20 September, North Korea tested a new missile, thought to be one with a hypersonic warhead. According to a South Korean report, North Korea’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) provided no details of the missile tested, but wording on the photo caption released by the agency referred to the ‘Hwasongpho-11Ma-1 flight trajectory’. So it is likely to be an ‘upgraded version of the Hwasong-11MA’ hypersonic missile that North Korea first showcased in 2025. South Korean security analysts believe the Hwasongpho-11Ma-1 ‘combines a KN-23, or Hwasong-11Ga, missile body with a hypersonic glide vehicle-type terminal section’. They describe it as ‘a long-range precision-strike weapon designed to penetrate missile defences through manoeuvrability while striking targets several hundred kilometres away.’
Two weeks later, on 3 October, North Korea fired an intermediate-range missile into the Sea of Japan. According to the Asia-Pacific Security Magazine, the KCNA characterised it as another hypersonic missile test. The KCNA reportedly claimed that the missile had struck a target 1,000 km away, though both South Korea and Japan suggested a smaller range. The North Korean leader’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, also claimed that the missile could ‘manoeuvre at low altitude and incorporated unspecified artificial intelligence capabilities intended to complicate interception.’ Manoeuvring is a characteristic of a hypersonic missile. Kim Yo Jong also asserted the inability of Japan and South Korea to arrive at an accurate picture of the flight details, saying that ‘whenever we applied the wavelike trajectory mode to missiles, the enemy failed to track the targets from their first skip points.’ More worryingly, she also described the missile as ‘strategic’, implying it was designed to deliver nuclear warheads.
About a week later, on 12 October, North Korea reportedly launched multiple ballistic missiles of different types. The missiles were fired off its east coast, with at least one type flying more than 900 km, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
And on 14 October came news, credited to the KCNA, about North Korea test-firing two kinds of submarine-launched cruise missiles. These appear to have been fired from the Hero Kim Kun Ok, a submarine that was launched in 2023. There has been some scepticism about the capability of this submarine, but if this was the actual launch platform, this North Korean capability should be treated seriously. Previous underwater missile launches had been from a testbed rather than an operational submarine.
These launches raise concerns about how North Korea managed to make such rapid progress in missile technologies. Many security analysts have attributed North Korean progress to the closer relationship between North Korea and Russia. If they’re right, then we have more reason to expect rapid North Korean technical progress.
North Korea extended military assistance to Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine. In return, North Korea reaped economic benefits and access to military technologies. According to a South Korean think tank, Pyongyang’s arms sales and troop deployment generated more than $10 billion for North Korea, which, for a country whose GDP is around $27 billion, is huge. Most of this payment was in the form of sensitive military technology, weapon parts or other materials. Studies also note that Russian companies Novator and Raduga could be assisting North Korea in further advancing the development of new cruise missiles of the Hwasal family.
Beyond missiles, North Korea appears to have gained access to other critical technologies from Russia. South Korea’s military has intelligence hinting at Russia supplying North Korea with submarine nuclear propulsion technology. South Korean Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back also revealed this in the parliament’s Defense Committee hearing in October 2025. Though the South Korean intelligence has not yet been verified, there is a reasonable suspicion that Moscow may have supplied two or three propulsion sets from its own decommissioned nuclear submarines. Some reports have also indicated the possibility of Russia providing North Korea with submarine noise-suppression technology.
In addition, Russia is known to have shared drone technology with North Korea. But the growing concern is that Pyongyang could gain access to more advanced and sophisticated drones that could be AI-enabled and jet-powered, such as the Geran-5. Further, North Korea’s Geumseong series tactical attack drones bear a close resemblance to Russian (and Israeli) types, which raises the strong possibility of Russian technology transfers to North Korea.
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